Monday, August 19, 2019

Trend of Population Change and its Impact on the Environment - INDONESIA

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Indonesia is located across the equator and stretch from Sumatra in the west to Iranian Jaya in the east, or from Sabang to Merauke (Dari Sabang Ke Merauke). Its geographic coordinates are 5 00 S,10 00 E .The total area is 1,1,440 sq km. But interestingly only 0% consists of land, the rest is water. The number of islands in the Indonesian archipelago is disputed, but a commonly cited figure is 1,667, of which about 6000 are inhabited. Its capital is Jakarta.


Indonesia is regarded as the forth most populated country in the world. At present its total population is about 8,47,870 (July 000 est.) and its population growth rate is 1.6% (001 est.) Among this huge population 88% are Muslims,


Indonesian climate is tropical; hot, humid more moderate in highlands.


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Methodology


Our total study is mainly based on secondary data .We collected the data from statistical yearbook and web page related to Indonesia. From those data we tried to analyze the overall picture by tables, graphs, charts and maps. Moreover our honorable instructor Dr. Ziaush Shams also helped us a lot.


General Geology


Indonesia is the worlds largest archipelago located between Asia and Australia and between two oceans, Pacific and Indian. Indonesia comprises more than 1,000 islands extending east to west over a distance of ,400 miles and north to south over more than 1,100 miles. The total land area is 75,865 square miles. Indonesian seas area extent is about four times greater than the land area, for approximately ,67,000 square miles of combined land and sea, an area larger than the continental United States or even Australia. The Western Indonesia comprises mostly called Sunda shelf including the Malacca straits, Natuna Sea, offshore Southeast Sumatra, North Java, East Java Sea and Offshore Kalimantan delimits the sea depth shallower than 00 meters. The population of Indonesia is estimated at 180 million, making it the fifth most populous country in the world after China, India, United States and Russia. The Java Island itself represents less than 7% of total area, but supporting for more than 50% of the population making the most densely populated island in the world. The major islands of Indonesia are Sumatra, Kalimantan (most of Borneo), Java, Sulawesi and Irian Jaya (west half of New Guinea. Kalimantan is the largest landmass with area of 08,000 square miles, making the largest island in the world. Sumatra is the second largest island with 18,000 square miles. Indonesia is an equatorial country; its tropical forest is only second to Amazon. The rainfall, especially in Kalimantan averages 150 inches per year. There are more than 60 sedimentary basins in Indonesia, which may generate and trap hydrocarbons. The main productive basins are North Sumatra, Central Sumatra, South Sumatra, Sunda, Northwest Java, East Java, Barito, Kutei, Tarakan, and Salawati. The basins are located in a unique geological framework, with 1 identified in the west andin the east. Only two basins are still undrilled in the west as opposed to 1 in the east. Thus, 1 of the basins (5%) are classified as virgin or immature areas. The remaining basins are considered semi-mature, consisting of 5 non-producing basins and mature, and 14 producing basins.



History



Indonesia is an old country, steeped in history.Scientists believe it goes back a long way to when 500,000 years ago Java man inhabited the islands.Indonesias history is one, which has been influenced by outsiders and foreigners.The Dutch, Japanese and Indians, just to name a few, have had something to do with Indonesias past and their culture of today.Foreigners from India and Persia brought new religions to Indonesia and changed the country forever. Indonesia is believed to have existed 4 million years ago, when it was part of the Asian mainland.The beginning of Indonesian history began when the ice started to melt just North of Europe and the American continent.Many other species of man were thought to have lived and evolved on the islands and the mainland Indonesia. India played a vital role in the development of the history and culture of Indonesia today.Indian settlers, mostly those from Southern India began to migrate to Indonesia during the 1st to 7th century AD.Indians introduced new religions and helped refine the Sanskrit language, which eventually caused the spread of Indian civilization into Indonesia. Moslem merchants from India and Persia established trade routes with Indonesia in the 1th century AD.Along with their goods the traders also brought the Islamic faith with them.Soon many Indonesians, particularly those along the coastal areas of Java, were converted, so began the coming of Islam about six centuries after the Hindu period. The Dutch began their quest for spices to sell on the European market in the 16th century AD.Selling spices in Europe would mean huge profits for the Dutch government, so in order to maximize their profits; they increased their efficiency and organization by founding the Dutch East Indies Company (VOC - Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie) in 160.After nationalizing the VOC in 17, the Dutch government had more control then ever before in Indonesia.The natives were forced to hand over their crops to the Dutch merchants; it was the beginning of Dutch colonialism. When Germany started World War II in Europe, Japan then made its move and


attacked Pearl Harbor in Hawaii.They later moved southwards to conquer as many Southeast Asian countries as they thought possible.Once Singapore was under Japanese control, they invaded the Dutch East Indies and the Dutch colonial army surrendered and the Japanese occupation occurred in March 14.Once Japan had a hold of Indonesia they began their propaganda campaign for what the Japanese called Great East Asia Co-prosperity.Indonesians soon thought this would be the key to positive change in Indonesia, but things did not quite turn out that way.


Although Indonesia is a diverse country with over 00 different ethnic


groups, most of Indonesias population comes from an Indo-Malaysian world, which today encompasses Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.Indonesias first populations had a rudimentary understanding of an agricultural economy based on cereals, and had knowledge of pottery and stone tools, during 500 to 500 BC.During the period 500 AD to 500 BC, when Indonesians were believed to have interacted with the people of South and East Asia, experts agree that metals and farm animals were probably introduced to the natives.


Dutch colonialism


The Dutch set out to control the spice trade and they eventually began


ruling Indonesia as a colony, but caused turmoil in the country.Once the Dutch seized Ambon in the Moluccas in 1605 and Banda Island in 16, they had a firm grip on the trade monopoly of the Spice Islands.Later the Dutch cut up and divided the land between them.This way trade among the local people of Makassar, Aceh, Mataram and Banten was brought to a halt. Indonesia was eventually brought to an agricultural country that supplied Europe with their goods.The Hindu Kingdom of Mataram was converted to Islam and was ruled by Sultan Agung Hanyokrokusumo.He was the one who developed the political power of the state and was eventually a fierce enemy of the Dutch.It was in 16 that he sent his military forces to attack Batavia, but they were defeated by Governor General Jan Pieterszoon Coens troops. In the year 1666 the Sultan Hasanuddin of Goa declared war against the Dutch.The result was the defeat one year later and Goa became a vassal state of the VOC (Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie) under the treaty of Bunggaya.Thirteen years later in 1680, prince Trunojoyo of Madura also waged war against the Dutch; he was later defeated and killed.The Dutch were looking for a way to secure their control of the spice monopoly in the Moluccas, so they began their Hongi expeditions.Their goal was to burn down as many clove gardens as possible, in an effort to eliminate overproduction.The people of Indonesia were hurt most by these expeditions.These excursions lead to brutal crimes committed against those who attempted to defend their crops.The VOC did benefit greatly from its control of the spice trades, however in 17 the VOC fell into bankruptcy due to mismanagement and corruption amongst its people.



Climate



Indonesia is generally classified as having a tropical or equatorial climate, which is controlled, by its archipelago structure and its position on the equator. These factors assure high, even temperatures and its location between Asia and Australia strongly influences the monsoon rainfall patterns. Temperatures are uniformly high, ranging from -1


degree Celsius (74-88 degree Fahrenheit) and are a function of elevation


rather than latitude. The area `s relative humidity ranges between 70 and 0 percent. The extreme variation in rainfall are linked with monsoons. In Indonesia, there normally is a dry season (June to September) that is caused by Australian continental air masses, and a rainy season (December to March) that is influenced by the Asian and Pacific air masses. Precipitation is the most important element of the climate of the Indonesian archipelago and it shows a great variation over the area as a whole. Local variations in precipitation are great, for example, Jakarta, near sea level, receives 70 inches of rain annually while Bogor which is higher in the mountains at an altitude of 70 feet records nearly 170 inches.



Flora



Reputed as the Spice Islands of the East, the Indonesian flora originates mostly from the Asian mainland, which makes it very diverse and exotic. The archipelago vegetation varies accordingly to rainfall, altitude and soil conditions. The plant life includes 40,000 different species belonging to ,000 different families with 10 percent of all plant


species in the world. About 60% of Indonesia is still covered with tropical rain forest especially in areas like Kalimantan and Irian Jaya, which are mostly forest-covered; while islands like Java and Bali have


much smaller forest-covered areas. The Indonesian vegetation includes ,500 species of orchids and ,000 species of trees, which includes durian, sandalwood, illupi nut, valuable of timber varieties like teak and ironwood, and rattans. The hill forests consist of oaks, chestnuts and other mountain plants. Most of the timber that is exploited in Indonesia comes from Kalimantan but also from certain regions of Java. But the island of Java is mostly known for its agricultural activity resulting from rich soils caused by volcanic eruptions and extensive deforestation. The culture of wet-rice, corn and tea is widespread in Java since it requires less land than other cultivation and can be done in mountainous terrain. Other islands like Sumatra are sources of rubber or palm oil but also petroleum, copper and bauxite. Another typical feature of Indonesian vegetation is the mangrove forest, which grows only in salty water along muddy shores. Mangrove swamps are extensively developed along the shallow seas on Sumatra, Kalimantan and Irian Jaya. To provide for the growing population, there has been a massive deforestation of areas in Java, which have caused erosion and soil exhaustion. These problems have been recognized by the Indonesian, which has been promoting selective cutting and reforestation. Six percent of the land has also been set aside for natural reserves and national parks.



Fauna



The Indonesian wildlife is influenced by two faunal regions the Megagaean of Asia in the west and Notogaean of Australia in the east. These two realms are separated by Wallace's Line which runs between Kalimantan and Sulawesi in the north and Bali and Lombok in the south. The Indonesia fauna incorporates 500 mammals like the tigers, orangutans, elephants of Sumatra, freshwater dolphins of Kalimantan, tree kangaroos, wallabies of Irian Jaya, rhinoceros and tapirs. Fifteen hundred species of birds are also found in Indonesia like different species of birds-of-paradise, parrots, cockatoos and peacocks, which are only found on the island of Java. Species of fish, reptiles, amphibians and invertebrates populate the seas and the coasts, including giant sea turtles and the carnivorous monitor lizards of Komodo also known as the Komodo Dragon. The warm seas surrounding the Indonesian archipelago are considered the richest waters in the world for their extraordinary sea life (fish, corals and mammals like dolphins). Indonesia also has an enormous and varied insect life that includes many unusual species like the giant walkingsticks, walking leaves, huge atlas beetle and Luna moths. Since Indonesia is home to many endemic species that are in danger of extinction, Indonesian government decided to protect these animals by


creating National Wildlife Parks like Mount Leger National Park, which is home to the Orangutan rehabilitation centers.


Indonesian Economy


The Republic of Indonesia is appearing to be a most productive economy in the Asia Pacific Region. Deemed as a tiger and labeled as one of the ten Big Emerging Markets by the United States Department of Commerce, their longest period of economic stability, spanning 5 years, has been significant in the lives of the countrys 00 million inhabitants. Indonesia has shown progress through numbers, and statistics on the Indonesian economy prove quite positive. The country still relies on agriculture, although not quite as heavily, due to their developing industries. Protectionist policies are evolving to liberalization to attract foreign investment, which has been on the rise in the country.


Most recently, the crash in the Southeast Asian stock market has been an obstacle to any further economic development, yet Indonesias economy is still relatively young and can, with its neighboring countries, emerge all the wiser and learn much from what has happened.


Economic Activities of Indonesia


The economy of the Republic of Indonesia is primarily mixed, meaning that they encourage the growth of the public sector and commit to the idea of full employment by combining the methods of capitalism and socialism. By 15 estimates, their purchasing power parity equaled $710. billion, and real GDP growth during the previous ten years was at an average of about 7%. GDP per capita was $,500. Indonesia has been working hard at industrializing itself, something, which reflects in the statistics for GDP composition by sector.



PEA



Agriculture, which produces rice, tapioca, peanuts, rubber, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, copra and other tropical products, as well as poultry, beef, pork and eggs, contributed 17% of GDP.



SEA



Industries, however, controlled .6% with petroleum and natural gas,


Textiles, mining, cement, chemical fertilizers, plywood, food and rubber.


Developing Industries


While agriculture still remains important, industries are surfacing in the


country, marking its development in a vital manner. The International Labor Organization (ILO) recently released a report indicating that employment in the textile, garment and footwear industry has gone up in Asia while tumbling in the West by as much as 40%. The ILO also states Indonesia had a growth rate of jobs of 4% in the years 170 - 10. Asia holds the biggest share of world clothing exports with %, and even though industrialized countries still lead in turnout, their annual production growth rate was averaged at 0.% for the past twenty years, while Asias was .6%. The government of Indonesia has also seen the importance of tourism for they have increased its budget to around US $47 million for 17, up by 4%. Post and telecommunications sectors, however declined by 8. rupiah. After the turmoil surrounding the countrys currency, Indonesias economic growth is estimated to sink between six and 6.5% from last years 7.1% (it reached 7.5 in 14 and 8.1 in 15).Manufacturing and construction industries are to be the most affected, with service and trade sectors suffering as well.



TEA



Services picked up the remaining 50.4%. It is not easy to take in the . million workers who enter Indonesias labor force of 67 million each year. Worker productivity between 185 and 15 doubled, and from 171 until 15, 44 million new jobs have been created. Minimum wage rose 55% in 15.This extra income has certainly given the workers an incentive to spend more. Industrial production rate is estimated at 1.%, and agriculture in particular can benefit from science, technology and industry. The underemployment rate is 40% (14 estimate). The countrys revenue is around $8.1 billion and capital expenditure (for year 6/7) is 14.5 billion. Indonesias exports total $ . billion and imports were $ billion for the year 14. Export commodities are led by manufactured products (almost 60%), fuels (6.4 %), foodstuffs (1.7%) and raw materials (%). Trading partners include Japan (7.4%), America (14.6%), Singapore (10.1%), South Korea (6.5%), Taiwan (4.1%), Netherlands, China and Hong Kong (.%), and Germany (.%). Indonesia has an external debt of $7.6 billion (15 estimate), and receives economic aid of $ 1.54 billion (1). Japan is Indonesias most important buyer of exports as well as supplying help. In the meantime, plantation crops are used for exports and job creation. The countrys assorted supply of natural resources, such as crude oil, natural gas, timber, etc., sometimes still serve as a base for industrial production.


Population Density and Distribution


The three islands of Java, Bali and Madura have very high population densities in comparison with other regions. This contrast reflects the actual variation in resource endowments and ecological situations between the nations provinces. Throughout most of the 0th century, Javas population has been growing at a much slower rate than that of the islands of Outer Indonesia. Hence the proportion of Indonesians living in Java has declined from around two-thirds at the time of Independence to 60 per cent at the 10 census. In the late 170s and early 180s some 1. million families (around four and a half million people) were moved under the transmigration program. The goals of the program are however, predominantly articulated in terms of regional development in the Outer Islands rather than demographic redistribution. The shift in government policy in the late 180s to facilitate investment and industrialization, however, is tending to favor growth in Java. Between 185 and 10 the number of people moving into Java (77,78) was almost as great as the number moving in the opposite direction (7,40).


The Parameters of the Population Change


The parameters, that we used to explain the trend of the population, are defined underneath.


Crude Birth Rate (CBR)


The number of live children who are born for every thousand people in a particular country each year is called the crude birth rate. Mathematically;


Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = B/P1 00


Here,


B - Total number of children who are born within one year.


P = The average population for one year


Crude Death Rate (CDR)


The number of deaths that occur per 1000 people in a country. Within one year is called the crude death rate. Mathematically


Crude Death Rate (CDR) = D/P1 000


Here,


D = Total number of deaths occurred within one year


P = The average population for one year


Total Fertility Rate (TFR).


The average number of children a woman bears during her lifetime is called total fertility rate.


Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


The total output of goods and services for final use produced by an economy, by both residents and non- residents, regardless of the allocation to domestic and foreign claims. 1It does not include deduction for depreciation of physical capital or depletion and degradation of natural resources.


The Demographic Transition


Social change and development in a society is accompanied by a sequence of changes in birth and death rates. The Demographic Transition model identifies this sequence. A fall in fertility is ascribed to an increase in the burden of rearing children in an urban industrial society and the improved survival rates of infants, supported by improved methods and practice of contraception. The generalized descriptive model was developed from observation and description of the experience of Western developed countries in the early part of this century. The model, however, is not accepted as being universally applicable.


Stage 1.


The first phase is of a traditional society where there is a high level of fertility and high but unstable mortality rates caused by famines, wars and infectious disease epidemics.


Stage .


The model suggests that the transition begins in response to modernization, better living conditions, and disease control. A decline in death rates occurs, while fertility rates stay high. There is a great population growth.


Stage .


Stabilization of death rate at low levels, a reduction in the birth rate levels off population growth and death and birth rates converge in this stage. Indonesia is well into this phase in which natural increase is falling as the nation is moving towards low equilibrium.



Stage 4.



The final phase is of slight growth, as in the initial stage. Both birth and death rates are however, low, with some fluctuations in fertility due to changes in economic and, to a lesser extent, social trends.



Graph



Population Growth Rate


Year 1651.8


Year 170.1


Year 175.4


Year 180.


Year 185.1


Year 101.


Year 151.7


Year 0001.6


The graph of population growth rate from year 165 to 000 shows us a wave curve of growth rate. That curve increases to the middle and decreases from the middle to the end. In 165 the growth rate was 1.8 and it increases to highest of these given years as .4 in 175. After that the population starts to decline to 1.6 in year 000. The population became more stable this year.


The day-by-day improvement of the socio-economic situation is the prime cause of the decrement of the population growth.


Total Population Of Selected Years


Year 1801546


Year 18517065


Year 101166


Year 150108


Year 000661


The above chart shows us the population of Indonesia from year 165 to 000. The population was 11.6 million in year 165. That increases to 6.61 million in year 000. So the difference of the population of these two years is 114.5 million. That implies it takes the population only 5 years to be doubled. It is happened, although the population growth rate is 1.6 now, because of the high growth rate of the years from year 165 to 10. Among this 5 years duration the population increases as much as (11.6-11.6million) 7.00million people. After that period from year 10 to 000 the population increases only 17.51 million. Because of the population growth rate decreases in these years.



CBR and CDR


Year 180 5.0 1.0


Year 1851.10.


Year 107.68.8


Year 154.67.7


Year 000.7.0


We have analyzed the population of years 165-000. But the data of the crude birth rate (CBR) and the crude death rate (CDR) of 165 to 175 were not available. So if we consider the given graph of CBR and CDR of year 180 to 000, we can easily notice that the crude birth rate declined very sharply in that period. Although the CBR was very high in 180 the CDR was less than that. The change of CDR is not much significant as CDR, though it's decreasing. That implies the position of Indonesia in Demographic Transition Model is the Late DTP. Because we know that the Late DTP contains significant decrement of CBR and slow decrement of CDR.


Total Fertility Rate


Year 1804.8


Year 185.80


Year 10.


Year 15.8


Year 000.5


Another important phenomena to be considered in population trend are total fertility rate. From the given graph of total fertility rate we find that the fertility rate decreases from year 180 to 000. It was 4.8 in 180 and it became .5 in 000. That also impacts the CDR to be declined at a high rate. Thus the total population is also indirectly effected by the decreasing fertility rate.


Total Population of Male and Female


Year 188 186 154


Year 000 118 110


The above graph shows the total population of male and female in the year 188 and 000. We find that, the ration between male and female is not that much. Actually it is almost same. But if we compare the ratio of male and female over the last 1 years (year 188-000) it increases.


The Age Structure


The figure (above) shows the number of Indonesians recorded in each five-year age group at the 180 and 10 censuses. The 180 population pyramid has a broad base, with each older five-year age group tending to have fewer members than the one directly below it. This is because for any birth group mortality will gradually erode their numbers as they age up the pyramid. Hence if fertility is more or less constant, each older age group will have less than the one immediately below it and more than that immediately above it. If there is a significant continuing decrease in the death rate, however, it will mean that as a group moves into an older age category the numbers in that age category will - relatively - increase. This is because although the group may have started off around the same size as that of the slightly older group leaving that age category, more of its members have been saved from death by the lower mortality rate. This is the situation in Indonesia.


Overall Analysis of Graph And Data


With an estimated population in 000 of 6.6 million people, Indonesia is the fourth most populous nation in the world and accounts for 40 per cent of Southeast Asias population. Population issues have been a major concern to governments in Indonesia both during the colonial era and since Independence.


Population Growth


Indonesias population has risen dramatically in the last two centuries, especially in Java. A high priority has been given to population reduction. For several years after Independence lower rates of growth occurred due to the disruption caused by the Japanese occupation and War of independence. Improvements in mortality in the 160s and 70s led to an increase in the annual growth rate. The 180s, however, saw a decline in the growth rate that has continued into the 10s. The success in reducing population growth has been achieved mainly through a significant reduction in the birth rate over the last two decades, while mortality levels have been greatly reduced. Life expectancy at birth has also increased from 47 in 171 to 5 in 180, and is now around 5 (58 for males and 61 for females). Indonesia is now well advanced in the demographic transition and it is anticipated that fertility will reach replacement level early in the next century.


Indonesias Changing Age Structure


It is important to realize that certain age groups in Indonesia are increasing more quickly than the population as a whole. This is due to a degree of unevenness in the age structure. The age structure reflects past trends in both fertility and mortality in Indonesia. Continuing significant improvements in infant and child mortality rates have resulted in each age group growing substantially as a more recently born group replaces an older group. Therefore the numbers of males, for example in the age group 10-1, were larger in 10 than the number of males aged 10-1 in 180. Between 180 and 10 there has been a very large increase in population aged between 10 and 40. Hence Indonesias labor force is currently growing more quickly than the population as a whole. It also means that the numbers of women in the childbearing age groups are also increasing rapidly so that, even while the number of births per woman is decreasing, the total number of births will remain large for some time.


Indonesia, like many countries in the Asian region, faces a massive growth of its elderly population. At present Indonesia has some 11.5 million people aged 60 years and over but this will increase to 16 million by 000 and will reachmillion in 00. Over this period they will increase from 6.4 per cent to 11.4 per cent of the total population in 00. This represents a considerable challenge to policy makers since the present availability of support for the dependent elderly is almost totally from family sources. Contemporary changes in the Indonesian family and society may mean that this source will not be so readily available in the future.


Future Trends


Indonesias population growth still remains one of the greatest challenges facing policy makers and planners. Few countries in the world have been more active in seeking to influence their population growth and distribution, and in the case of the family planning program, few have been more successful than Indonesia. Nevertheless the demographic momentum built into the Indonesian age pyramid will ensure that substantial population growth will continue well into the next century, even if fertility continues to decline. It appears that the national population will increase to 10 million by the year 000, 5 million in 010 and 54 million in 00 and will peak at 54 million. Finding ways to provide jobs and education, for example, for this substantial net increment to its population, while improving the quality of living of the total population, as well as preserving the natural endowment of resources through using them in sustainable ways, presents a huge challenge to policy makers and the Indonesian nation. The figure (below) shows the number of Indonesians recorded in each five-year age group at the 180 and 10 censuses. The 180 population pyramid has a broad base, with each older five-year age group tending to have fewer members than the one directly below it. This is because for any birth group mortality will gradually erode their numbers as they age up the pyramid. Hence if fertility is more or less constant, each older age group will have less than the one immediately below it and more than that immediately above it. If there is a significant continuing decrease in the death rate, however, it will mean that as a group moves into an older age category the numbers in that age category will - relatively - increase. This is because although the group may have started off around the same size as that of the slightly older group leaving that age category, more of its members have been saved from death by the lower mortality rate. This is the situation in Indonesia.



Conclusion



We tried our best to analyze all the data and also tried to find out the impacts of growing population of Indonesia .In conducting this study we had some limitations. Most of the studies are based on secondary data. It would be amore rich & precise study if could collect the primary data correctly. And we also have the shortage of time.


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